"We have heard the chimes at midnight". William Shakespeare I only usually begin to become worried about something when I hear the bell beginning to toll, is this is one of those moments? I appear to be facing a dilemma in preparing this forecast; will it go one way or the other? All the global model evidence is 'saying' one thing whilst the patterns which have been rather consistent for a while now are 'screaming' at the top of their voices another, do I listen to the 'voices' in my ear or go with the convictions? High pressure for so long has blocked the eastward progress of Atlantic low pressure systems approaching the UK and has kept the flow from a relatively mild and benign direction, all the evidence from the forecast patterns in front of me show high pressure relocating, a much cooler regime establishing across the UK, this is at odds with many of the longer range global models, hence you may appreciate the headache? Perhaps I it may be that have 'stayed out too late' with old friend and can hear the 'bells ringing', for now though, I have to stick with my convictions. *21/11/11 - 28/11/11* It'll be here that It'll be 'make or break' time for the forecast as the 'block' to the east will be removed, a pressure build relocating, allowing low pressure to push through the UK. It'll be unsettled and cool, sliding down the scale as time goes by into the colder category, a flow from the north and northeast turning the showers wintry over the higher parts of the north, a brisk wind everywhere accentuating the rather cold feeling. High pressure is shown to be the dominant feature to the north or northwest a rather cold quadrant orientated flow persisting across all, a wintry flavour to the increasing scattered showers, winds falling lighter and variable in nature as pressure builds through western Britain. *29/11/11 - 04/12/11* High pressure looks as if it'll be slipping through the UK, so at least a few days of settled weather could be on the cards here, settling into a quiet and chilly regime. Mist and fog may become an overnight problem across many areas, this lingering as low cloud and murk in one or two favoured places, bright and pleasantly sunny where it clears. Winds will be initially light and variable, although as the high slips into the near Continent a fresher southerly breeze will establish through western Britain, this ahead of increasing cloud brining some patchy rain through extreme western areas later. *05/12/11- 10/12/11* With high pressure slipping to the south and lower pressure to the north the UK should be seeing a mainly westerly orientated flow during this period. Rain and strong winds will be affecting western Britain at first and this rather unsettled weather will extend quickly east and south through the period. Milder generally than of late and rather cloudy too for much of the time, later though cooler and showery rain will spread through all areas on a blustery wind, becoming colder through northern Britain as the fow swing into the north or northwest as low pressure clears eastward. *11/12/11 - 19/12/11* 'Let battle commence' - It'll be around here that the pattern for the early part may be set, pressure should be rising to the north and northeast, extending a ridge into the UK, so all areas should settle but this at the expense of falling temperatures as colder Continental air feeds into Britain. For the most part all areas should be settled, the usual early winter mix of cold and frosty, bright and sunny where this clears, overcast and dull where it persists being the order of the days. Atlantic low pressure may attempt to push into the southwest, throwing cloud and moisture in to the cold circulation, some threat of wintry precipitation across western and southern Britain occurring for a time. Simon & Capn Bob Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
Source: http://feeds.weatheronline.co.uk/~r/weatheronline/~3/hNbbG2uY_W0/reports
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