Winter, which, being full of care, makes summer's welcome thrice more wish'd, more rare. William Shakespeare, Sonnet LVI It is one of those occasions when I somehow I'd wished I'd remained under the duvet this morning as I'd have missed the deadline for compiling this forecast and although still being in trouble with 'the boss' for being late in filing it, I'd let myself 'off the hook' by not having to make a commitment on which way I believe this pattern is about to 'jump'? Winter 2011-12 was never going to be a replay of last year, although many expected and anticipated that it would be, for me I have to say that it has been somewhat of a 'disappointment' in terms of interesting 'activity' or characteristic seasonal conditions so far, that however may be about to alter. Perhaps this winter could be a 'mirror image' of last year, the coldest conditions 'bunched up' in the final 'statistical meteorological month' rather than the first in 2011-12? The dilemma at the moment is that all the guns are primed for a 'salvo' of intensely cold polar air to come southwards into continental Europe, whether this gets into the UK is the critical factor and is dependent upon a build of pressure which is expected to take place through the next week to ten days, an easterly flow would see this flooding across the British Isles and when compared to recent temperatures a dramatic alteration is fortunes, the determination of the actual wind direction through this period will be crucial to this forecasts viability. *--- 26/01/12* The short term sees conditions dominated by a west to northwesterly flow, some rain, some showers and some drier weather for all the UK. Temperatures although 'reasonable' at first looks set to be declining away, some more general outbreaks of rain and strong winds taking the edge of the benefit of this, as the period closes it looks as if a potentially major change in fortunes could occur. A wet and windy period is indicated for all areas crossing from the west, followed by a blustery and increasingly cool regime and becoming colder later. *27/01/12 - 05/02/12* It'll be around this date that high pressure should begin to take control of the overall pattern, the location of its development crucial for the importation of colder air becoming entrenched over central Europe. Low pressure should be shunted away, taking with any remaining remnants of showery activity plaguing the UK, the whole of the country becoming largely dry, settling into a lengthy spell of quiet, mid-winter anticyclonic conditions. Winds will for the most part be light to variable in nature through the life of this high pressure, a recipe for the associated problems and benefits of mid-winter anticyclonic weather. Mist, fog and frosty conditions widespread overnight, clearing slowly in most areas to bright and or sunny but cold conditions, although in prone spots this will no doubt persist making it cold and dull, hence feeling bitterly cold. With the aforementioned dilemma in mind, as the high pressure centre drifts and inevitably shifts its position, 'a watch' will have to be maintained for a strengthening or development of any easterly component to the flow, this potentially will threaten much colder air being drawn into the UK from off the continent and perhaps some wintry weather for the south. *06/02/12 - 09/02/12* Conditions look set to alter here, a change to rather more unsettled weather being 'flagged up' as the influence of high pressure declines away and low pressure edges into the UK, however it remains on the cold side, therefore this transition may potentially be quite 'messy'? A potentially wintry component to any precipitation at first will diminish later as generally less cold air moves through all areas from off the Atlantic courtesy of low pressure transiting the UK, outbreaks of rain for all areas followed by brighter showery conditions and a flow from the northwest. *10/02/15 - 15/02/12* Rather showery across most areas at first, low pressure edging away to be followed by rise in pressure from the west. Showers affecting all areas at first, some wintry over northern higher ground will die away, mainly broken cloud with brighter conditions establishing nationwide as a developing anticyclone to the west builds across the UK. The overnight problems of frost and fog return. The hint that once again, high pressure could become a large and persistent feature. Simon & Capn Bob Email me at simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
Source: http://feeds.weatheronline.co.uk/~r/weatheronline/~3/0KeJfdsx8jo/reports
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