? Hurricane Irene downgraded to category one
?�First US landfall takes place at Cape Lookout, N Carolina
? New York braced for chaos as hurricane Irene approaches
?�Subway and bus systems shutting down from noon today
?�Mayor orders first-ever evacuation in some NYC districts
? Read our latest summary here
? Read our latest story on Hurricane Irene
? Follow me on Twitter @MatthewWells
? Email me: matt.wells@guardian.co.uk
MSNBC is reporting the first death related to Hurricane Irene: a man killed by a falling tree branch outside his home in North Carolinsa, says Suzanne Goldenberg.
My colleague Paul Harris has been looking into the reasons why the New York authorities are so concerned about storm surges even though the wind speed forecasts have been downgraded. He writes:
Mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned New Yorkers that the main problem faced by the city is not Hurricane Irene's winds but flooding caused by its storm surge. Christopher Vaccaro, director of public affairs at the National Weather Service, explained that the science behind a surge is pretty straightforward.
Irene is packing such high winds that they basically push a body of water up in front of it, driving it on land and effectively raising the level of the sea ahead of the storm. "The pressure is literally driving a surge of water that rushes inland," Vaccaro said. It is that surge which can overtop sea defences and lead to widespread flooding which will be worsened in some spots by high levels of rainfall on saturated ground.
There is another issue too. The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the New York area some time on Sunday morning and could coincide with high tide which should be around 8 am, Vaccaro explained. Finally, due to the natural movements of the moon which controls the tides, tomorrow's high tide is expected to be an unusually high "spring tide". All of which will raise the level of the sea even higher and further worsen the impact of the expected storm surge.
New York is especially susceptible to this threat for two reasons. Firstly, there is simply a lot of low-lying land in the city that is vulnerable to flooding by such unusual conditions. Secondly, it is an urban area with things like subway stations built underground which
would easily flood if and when sea water overtops the coastal defences. All of which makes the flooding of Irene more of a threat than the winds. "There is coastal flooding, a storm surge and a high tide. That is a very serious situation," said Vaccaro.
So Stuart Millar's O-grade in physics stood him in good stead.
Bill Read, the director of the national hurricane center, speaking at the Fema news briefing, is warning of 4ft to 8ft storm surges up the eastern coastline including Delaware, New Jersey, New York Long Island, and up to New England.
The homeland security secretary Janet Napolitino is speaking at a Fema news conference now. She is urging people to take Hurricane Irene seriously, warning of heavy rain, flooding and power outages "all up and down the eastern seaboard".
The National Hurricane Center has just released a new update, warning of storm surges of between 5ft and 9ft above ground level in North Carolina, with sustained 85mph winds and tornadoes.
Here's a summary as we approach mid-morning on the east coast of the United States.
?�Hurricane Irene has made landfall at Cape Lookout in North Carolina. That makes it the first hurricane to hit the shores of mainland US since 2008. It has been downgraded to a category one hurricane ?�the lowest in the five-point hurricane scale. Winds of around 85mph are lashing the North Carolina coast, with reports of tornadoes.
?�Preparations are continuing in the major cities, including Washington and New York. The mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, said in a press briefing at Coney Island today that the authorities are now expecting winds between 55mph and 70mph to hit the city tomorrow, down from earlier forecasts of more than 100mph. But he said the real threat was from storm-surge flooding. He warned that electricity and gas may be turned off as a precaution. The city streets are quiet, many shops are closed in Lower Manhattan and the subway system is preparing to shut down from noon.
? More than 250,000 people are without power in North Carolina. There have been no reports of any injuries or deaths, but the coastguard in Virginia has been called out on a sea rescue mission. There are reports of localised flooding and downed trees.
? President Obama has declared states of emergency in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, North Carolina, Connecticut, Virginia, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. This means federal agencies are mandated to mount emergency responses.
My colleague Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington has sobering news. She writes:
For those who think everybody must have got the message by now to stay out of the storm ? given the endless warnings from officials ? consider this: the coastguard was out trying to rescue a small sail boat off the coast of Virginia this morning. It sounds like they are having difficulty getting to the boat as well, at least at first.
Coastguard spokesman John Miller says the sailboat, with two people on board, is about 400ft off the beach. They can't get a small boat or an aircraft to get near it, and are using line-throwing gun to try to pull the people in.
So, why are the New York City authorities so worried about Irene given that the wind speed forecast has been downgraded to 55-70mph? My colleague Stuart Millar has this on Twitter:
Storm surge is the biggest threat to NYC because Irene covers such huge area, so is pushing a lot of water in front of it. Plus it coincides with extremely high tides due this weekend caused by the new moon ? known as astronomical high tides.
Stuart, you should know, has an 'A' at O-grade physics (there's no direct American equivalent, but O-grades were Scottish high school qualifications gained at age 16). We're pitching for someone with better scientific credentials, but I'm going with this for now. Can anyone elaborate? @MatthewWells on Twitter or in the comments below.
Important pet news from the New York city council: "If you are taking your pet to a shelter please bring a copy of the pet's vaccination and medical records; a leash and muzzle; carrier; and food."
This is not as stupid as it may seem. There are an estimated 500,000 dogs in New York City, only 20% of which are licensed.
My colleague Paul Harris was also watching Bloomberg's press conference. He was in Coney Island with police commissioner Ray Kelly, touring preparations for Irene. He warned that city transport is shutting at mid-day and thus those who have to evacuate need to do it in the next few hours. "You have to start right now. We've had that lots of people are leaving and that's great," he said.
Paul also noted that Bloomberg is now focusing on the storm surge rather than the winds. "You can't prepare for the best case, you have to prepare for the worst case," Bloomberg said.
Bloomberg also had a clear message for one specific and surprisingly numerous breed of New Yorker: the city's surfers. He warned them not to try and surf waves generated by Irene off the beaches of Long Island. "We don't want to put our first responders lives in danger to try and save you," he said.
Bloomberg warns that the New York power company, Con Edison, may turn off the electricity as a precaution in Lower Manhattan if storm surges are likely. Salt water will flood the streets, he said, which causes more damage to live power lines than to those that are turned off. And he repeated his warning to those in the city's mandatory evacuation areas to leave.
It's conceivable that there'll be no electricity as well as a lot of water in the streets. Let's stop thinking this is something to play with. Staying behind is dangerous, staying behind is foolish and against the law. The time to leave is right now.
Beaches are closed for the weekend, as are all cultural institutions, he said.
The Staten Island ferry will close at 10pm. Bridges may close earlier.
He warns residents in high rises to stay away from windows above the 10th floor, where the risk of shattered glass is greater.
The mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, is speaking now. He says winds of between 55mph and 70mph are expected in the city tomorrow, down from predictions of over 100mph yesterday. He insists that the risk is still high, though:
The great danger to us here is from the storm surge. There is no evidence that the forecast for that has changed.
The outer bands of Irene are now approaching Washington, DC, as shown by this radar picture from the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia.
Our correspondent Chris McGreal, has this update from DC, which has declared the obligatory state of emergency and has cancelled tomorrow's dedication ceremony for the new Martin Luther King memorial.
The notoriously unreliable power company in the Washington DC metro area has been calling residents with a recorded warning that there's a good chance of losing electricity because of the storm. When it goes off in this city it can last for days.
I lived in Johannesburg for years which has its fair share of power cuts but they've been more frequent and lasted longer in the part of Washington I live in because of summer storms or winter snows, lasting on one occasion last year for five days.
The company blames all the trees, saying they come crashing down in storms and bring the power lines down with them. Which raises an eternal question here about why they don't just bury them as in most cities. But then that would cost money.
I've been asked who named Hurricane Irene. Seasoned storm-watches will raise their grizzled eyebrows and emit a knowing sigh, but for those wondering (like me), it's the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva. Here's the full list of projected names at the National Hurricane Center.
Time for a graph: these are wind speed readings from the National Data Buoy Center's automated station near Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
It shows the readings rising consistently, then falling away suddenly as the eye of the storm hit.
Thanks to Jeffrey Collins on Twitter for spotting this.
The National Hurricane Service is reporting winds of 85mph in coastal North Carolina, with Irene tracking north-northeast at a sluggish 14 mph.
This just in: Brian Stelter's poncho has ripped. Thankfully, he has spares.
As I mentioned earlier, the TV networks are giving this wall-to-wall coverage. TJ Holmes on CNN is repeatedly calling it a "monster storm", and everyone is desperately trying not to mention that it has been downgraded to a category one hurricane, the weakest category in the Saffir-Simoson hurricane scale.
The politicians are falling over themselves to be seen to be doing something. The president, Barack Obama, called it a "historic" hurricane yesterday and has returned to the White House a day early from his vacation at Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. He is desperate to avoid the mistakes of George Bush, who was slow to act over Hurricane Katrina.
Here in New York, mayor Bloomberg was slammed over his slow response to the big snow dump last year. City Hall is at the end of my street ?�they've been up all night there, co-ordinating the response to this.
Hurricane Irene is political, as well as meteorological.
Hurricane Irene is making landfall now at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. It has become the first hurricane to hit the US mainland since 2008.
The joke yesterday was that the first wall to fall victim to the hurricane was the New York Times paywall. The NYT announced that it is to drop subscription charges around its hurricane coverage as a "public service". Reaction was mixed, from those welcoming the move to others lambasting it as a missed opportunity for a media company mired in debt. (Other media companies mired in debt are available.)
I have no opinion of course, other than to say that their excellent coverage is here, and their indefatigable media (and occasional natural disaster) reporter Brian Stelter is tweeting furiously from the Comfort Inn at Nags Head on the outer banks of North Carolina.
Progress Energy has just updated its total of customers without power in the Carolinas to 160,000.
In the comments, AlexCovic mentions hysterical media coverage. It's certainly true that the TV networks especially are going nuts. You can almost here the disappointment in reporters' voices as they relay the news that Irene has been downgraded.
That's not to diminish its effects, though. I agree with one of my colleagues here who said there'll be a "big mess" in New York on Sunday and early next week. The subway system and tunnels linking Manhattan with Brooklyn and New Jersey are very vulnerable to flooding.
I'll be keeping it calm here at the Guardian, of course. Until the windows in my apartment blow in, that is. Then I'll get as hysterical as you like.
Big preparations are being made for Irene in New York. Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who faced criticism for his handling of heavy snow in the city at the end of last year, is determined not to be caught out again. The city's creaking subway system is to close, with a shutdown starting at noon. The buses and rail systems will also stop running.
For the first time ever, parts of the city have been served with a mandatory evacuation order. This affects low-lying areas of Manhattan, including one area just three blocks from where I am ?�plus parts of Brooklyn and all the Rockaways (a Long Island peninsula that falls within the New York city limits).
Hospitals and senior homes in the areas are being evacuated. But this doesn't mean people are legally obliged to leave, just that at the height of the storm, rescue services won't necessarily come to help.
There have been some minor reports of damage so far. The end of the pier at Atlantic Beach pier at Atlantic Beach in North Carolina has just fallen into the sea, according to TV news crews there. Progress Energy, which supplies electricity in the Carolinas, is reporting that 120,000 people are without power, while Virginia-based Dominion power says 14,000 of its customers are affected.
Welcome to our live coverage of Hurricane Irene as it tracks up the eastern coast of the United States and heads for New York. We'll be liveblogging until the power fails, and hopefully longer. I'm Matt Wells in New York and my colleagues around the city and in Washington DC will be contributing to our coverage.
Here's a summary of where we are now:
? Hurricane Irene is about to hit North Carolina. Winds of around 90mph are already thrashing the shoreline. Irene has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane, but there is still a significant risk of structural damage and flooding to the areas it hits. More than two million people along the east coast of the United States have been told to move inland. There are reports of structural damage in Beaufort and Tyrrell counties in North Carolina. Landfall of the first hurricane to hit the mainland since 2008 is expected in the next half-hour.
?�New York is braced for the worst as Irene threatens the city with its first hurricane in decades. Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered the evacuation of low-lying areas and, for the first time ever, has shut the subway and bus systems from noon today. The storm is expected to make landfall on Long Island tomorrow.
? President Barack Obama has returned to the White House in Washington, cutting short his holiday in Martha's Vineyard one day early. He has urged residents in affected areas to heed evacuation notices and hurricane warnings, and has signed a state of emergency declaration for New York. "Don't wait, don't delay," he said.
?�Amtrak has cancelled all train services in the northeastern corridor. More than 7,000 flights have been cancelled.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/aug/27/hurricane-irene-new-york-live
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