By Joe Rafferty
Today is the day when the Olympics really start in London.
Some might say that’s harsh, but if asked to name Ireland greatest Olympian, the names at the top of people’s lists would most likely be Delaney, O’Sullivan, Tisdall or Tracey.
Whether it’s Bolt v Blake, or to see if Ennis/Farah/Idowu can deliver when the pressure of a home games comes to bare, or if Derval can confound us all again, everyone has a real interest in the athletics at the Games.
As a self-confessed track and field geek, in my opinion, this is the week that is not comparable to any other in the sport.
So here, in no order or preference, are my thoughts on what to expect.
The Irish
Our Irish athletes have been preparing at St. Mary’s University in Teddington over the past 10 days, and as I understand it, all has gone to plan.
We won’t dwell on the selection controversy, as this has come to sit alongside death and taxes in lifes list of certainties every four years.
Being completely honest, our track athletes are unlikely to bring home any medals, but then again, in a team with Derval O’Rourke, you just never know.
As always, she has flown under the radar this year as she has prepared for London.
She has remained in Dublin working with her team and will parachute into the village at the last possible moment.
Derval will stay out of the spotlight until it’s time to step out on the track in Stratford.
This will only benefit her chances.
I don’t think you will find another athlete in the sport who has such confidence in her own ability, irrespective of their performances through the season, so it is pretty pointless analysing her races to date.
A lot will depend on the draw, I believe.
Having gone out in the first round in Athens and Beijing, O’Rourke has a real desire to drop the Olympic millstone from around her neck.
Her biggest fight has always been to make it to the final of a championship and London will be no different. If she can claim one of the eight lanes on August 7, then she will have a chance of bronze.
She will have to run an Irish record in order to do that, though.
I think anyone who can run sub 12.7 in the final will be in with a chance of bronze.
Robert Heffernan in the men’s 50km walk is the other hope for an Irish medal.
Since Gillian O’Sullivan’s silver medal at the World Championships in Paris in ’03, Ireland has always had competitive athletes in the walking disciplines.
The experienced Heffernan deserves a medal at a major championships more than any other athlete I know of.
The sacrifices and commitment Rob has shown since he was a junior, should be an example to any young sportsman.
Other Irish worth keeping tabs on include Tori Pena in the women’s pole vault, although her championship temperament is questionable.
Ciarán O’Lionaird. Where to start with Ciarán.
This guy has always had the ability.
The first time I saw him run was at a small indoor meet in Cardiff when he was 16.
He destroyed a field containing James Thie, a seasoned international miler.
He oozes class, as his performances last season in Korea showed.
He has balls on steel when it comes to racing.
Reputations mean nothing to him.
People are making a lot of his coach-change mid-season from Alberto Salazar to US-based British coach Mark Rowlands.
I think this will be the making of Ciarán.
Rowlands is a tough nut, and has a real knack of getting athletes ready for a major championships.
Since Hayley Tullet’s shock bronze for GB in 2003 at the World Championships Rowlands' reputation has grown as a coach.
One of his leading charges, GB’s Chris Thompson (Men’s 10km) has an injury plagued background like O’Lionaird.
Since his move to Rowlands in 2007, Chris has medalled at European level and has been competitive on the world stage.
Sadly, I think Ciarán will, at best, make a semi-final this year. This guy is definitely worth following between now and Rio 2016 though. His hairstyle is another conversation entirely!
Deirdre Ryan will hope to repeat last year’s appearance in the World Championships final.
She has had a poor season, but in high jump, if it all clicks on the day, she could make the final.
Linda Byrne and Mark Keneally – both of these Dublin athletes are relative novices at the marathon distance, but the early signs are promising.
A top-20 finish for each is not out of the question, and would be a superb achievement.
The Sure Things
Until nerves got the better of him last year in Korea, this piece would have read Usain Bolt and David Rudisha.
More on Bolt later, but if you are looking for a certainty look no further then the big Kenyan in the men’s 800m.
Since his breakthrough at the World Junior Championships in Bejing in 2008, Rudisha has always been destined to rewrite the history of 800m running.
Expect him to run under 1:42.5 with a front-running performance.
Ones to watch
Men’s 100m/200m: The men’s sprints will be the Bolt and Blake show.
Despite Yohan Blake’s rise to prominence in the last 12 months, my money will be on Bolt to retain his titles, although not in world records.
Since the Jamaican trials, he has listened to his coach and got back on the training track, and from what I hear he has been looking back to his best.
I’ve been told one training session saw him finish and then vomiting on the infield, such was the ferocity of his session at Brunel university.
Anyone who thinks this guy can just turn up and drop a 9.5/19.2 is crazy.
He wants this, and he wants it bad.
He won’t have it all his own way and if Blake is one metre up at 50m then we could see an upset in the 100m.
The 200m though, it’s all about the big man.
Men’s 10km: The British media have the gold almost around Mo Farah’s neck.
He is the form athlete and he will medal, I believe.
Will he win? Next question... I hope Mo does.
Having worked with him between 2005-2007, I know what Mo has done to deliver on the undoubted potential, which first shone at the London mini-marathon nearly 15 years ago.
Much will be made of the East Africans, but I think the challenge will come from closer to home for Mo, in the form of his US training partner Galen Rupp.
Rupp is the poster boy of US Track & Field.
The next Prefontaine if you listen to those at Nike, who have been searching for a successor to the king of US distance running since his death so tragically in his ’20’s.
In Rupp, they believe they have found him, and have backed him, and indeed Farah, with the best facilities/equipment that money can buy.
Rupp has been raced sparingly by his coach Alberto Salazar, and in Korea last year he showed he is not too far behind Mo.
Then, of course, there is Kenenisa Bekele.
Out of form. Lost his mojo. No longer has the hunger.
All of these have been thrown at Bekele over the past four years, most notably after his abject performance in last year’s World Championships.
His response? Go away for a month, train hard, go to Brussels and run 26:43! That was one of the fastest performances of all time.
Has anyone seen Bekele since the Paris Diamond League? He’ll be there or thereabouts.
I’m not a distance running fan, but the 25 laps on Saturday night are going to be unmissable.
My heart says Farah, Rupp, Bekele, in that order. I think it will be some combination of those three for the medals. What I will say is watch out for Rupp.
Men’s 400mH: World Champion Dai Greene will have a hell of a job on his hands to claim Olympic gold, but the mild-mannered Welsh man has the temperament to deliver on the biggest stage.
Monday night’s 400mH will be a cracker.
His challengers will come in the form of Javier Coulson (Paraguay), the three Americans and his training partner Jack Greene.
Jack, who is only 20, is a phenomenal talent, and if he can handle his nerves, he would be a great outside bet for a medal.
He will not be in the dust-up in the middle, and should he draw an outside lane and run his own race, two Brits could walk away with medals.
Greene, Coulson, Angelo Taylor is my prediction, but I may revisit that on Monday morning!
Men’s 110mH: Lui Xiang, who it was decreed, would win gold in a blaze of glory in his native Beijing four years ago.
An Achilles injury put paid to the hopes of the Chinese nation.
Can he make good now? I think so. Aries Merrit of the US will put it up to him, though. A billion people will hold their breath for 13 seconds.
Women’s 200m: Can Alyson Felix dethrone Veronica Campbell Brown? I believe she can.
Campbell-Brown will be no push over though and she strives to take her 3rd Olympic 200m title in succession.
Women’s 100mH: Despite a recent hiccup at Crystal Palace, I think Australia’s golden girl Sally Pearson will deliver when it counts.
She has been a star in the making since 2004 when she medalled in the 100m and the 100mH at the World Junior Champs in Grossetto, Italy. This will be her crowning glory - I hope!
Women’s 400m: This is a difficult one for me. Heart versus head. Sanya Richards-Ross is the favourite and has a grudge with defending champion Christine Ohurougu who took ‘her’ title in 2008.
Some would say Richards-Ross should be alongside Rudisha as a banker.
They may be right.
They probably are.
Then again, she was as certain a favourite in 2008.
Amantle Montsho, the world champion, has been in mixed form this year, but should feature in the medals.
The Russians will feature, if they’ve left Boots in time! That only leaves us with a lady who keeps herself to herself and who will just go out there to enjoy it and not want to let her family down.
Chrissy O has returned to form of late, and there will be no more relaxed athlete in London.
So, who will take gold? We’ll have to wait and see….just watch Ohurougu. That’s all I’ll say on that one!
Women’s Heptathlon: Jessica Ennis, Britain's golden girl.
Will she do it? Yes. I have known Jess since she was a junior, and have seen her at close quarters during the good times and the bad.
She is the kind of athlete, who if you say she can’t/won’t do something, she will duly deliver, with some extra on top for good measure.
I believe the heartbreak of 2008, when she broke down with injury and missed the Games, coupled with Chernova’s win at last year’s World Champs, is a recipe for Ennis to deliver.
She will need a massive first day with her strongest events all taking place.
Chernova will push her very close, and I think Dobrinska of the Ukraine, will be her biggest threats.
Dobrinska’s husband passed away early this year, and she is driving to win gold for him. She very well could, but my money will be on Ennis.
Joe Rafferty is a Director of Inmotion Sport, a London based Sports Marketing Agency, and a former Irish junior international athlete. He has worked in the athletics world for over 10 years, including a role at adidas where he was responsible for signing athletes like David Gillick, Jessica Ennis, Christine Ohuruogu, Mo Farah and Phillips Idowu to the brand.
Source: http://feeds.examiner.ie/~r/iesportsblog/~3/_EBso6-iotU/post.aspx
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