Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Predicting the top four

Ger McCarthy

Arsenal: Another summer and another long-running transfer saga involving one of Arsenal’s most prized possessions. Although Robin van Persie’s  refusal to extend his contract may not have come as a surprise, his willingness to listen to offers from both Man City and Man United is not likely to endear him to the Arsenal faithful. The Dutchman enjoyed a phenomenal 2012 thanks in large part to remaining completely injury-free for the first time in his Arsenal career. Juventus’ maintain a firm interest in the player’s services despite a £20 million asking price for the 29-year old.
That valuation has not deterred  Alex Ferguson from making a firm bid earlier in the week (although well below Arsenal’s valuation). Of his potential destinations, Manchester City appears the only club likely to meet van Persie’s reported £195,000-a-week wage demands. The way is clear then for Roberto Mancini to step up his interest in the coming weeks with Emmanuel Adebayor set to complete a permanent move to Spurs. Most Arsenal fans will be disappointed to lose their talismanic Dutch striker especially on foot the arrival of Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud during the close season.
Theo Walcott stalling on long-term contract negotiations plus continual boardroom unrest has made for a forgettable summer and a quick end to the RVP saga would be welcome if only to move on and concentrate on the upcoming campaign.

Verdict:
Naturally, Arsene Wenger does not wish to strengthen United or City’s title credentials by selling them his best striker so getting RVP to see out at least another year of his contract would suit the French manager best. The reality of the situation is that van Persie’s desire to win trophies and earn top wages will most likely see the Dutch striker end up in the blue of Manchester City before the new campaign begins. Therefore, Giroud and Podolski must hit the ground running and score the bulk of Arsenal’s goals should van Persie eventually move on. A top four finish is certainly within reach but a lot will depend on the Gunners new signings.

Predicted Finish:
4th

Man United:  Manchester United’s signing of Shinji Kagawa could well turn out to be the transfer of the summer if the Japanese international replicates his previous Borussia Dortmund performances for the Old Trafford club. Kagawa netted 13 times en-route to helping his side win a Bundesliga League and Cup double last season with his energy, passing ability and consistent scoring threat exactly what United’s sometimes stagnant midfield was missing last term.
Apart from the high profile signing of Kagawa, Ferguson’s hopes of wrestling the title back from Manchester City’s grasp will once again depend on the emerging youth within the United first team squad. Tom Cleverley (returning from a long-term injury), Phil Jones, Danny Welbeck, David DeGea, Chris Smalling are all under 23 and those young legs along with the experienced Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes and Wayne Rooney will spearhead United’s challenge this term. Fans of the Old Trafford club would no doubt have wished for a few more signings but a settled squad that challenged City right up to the final minutes of last season are certain to be amongst the front-runners once again.

Verdict:
Alex Ferguson’s reliance on developing youth rather than paying lavish fees for big money signings has much to do with a tightening of the purse strings at Old Trafford. The ageless Scot remains the best manager at cultivating young talent however and  United are certain to challenge for the title thanks to Ferguson’s ceaseless will to win. Chelsea and Manchester City’s bottomless pockets give those two clubs a distinct advantage when it comes to attracting the high earners and it is because of this United will have to make do with a finish outside the top two.

Predicted Finish
: 3rd

Chelsea: The close season signings of Marko Marin and Edin Hazard underline Roman Abramovich’s desire to build on Chelsea’s Champions League success and return the London club to the summit of the Premier League. Having reluctantly handed the managerial reins to Roberto DiMatteo on a permanent basis, Chelsea’s billionaire owner has not been afraid to splash the cash during the summer months in an effort to close the gap on Manchester City ahead of the new campaign. Abramovich will expect nothing less than the Premier League title in return for his summer investment along with the usual demand for beautiful attacking football similar to the tiki-taka approach of Barcelona.
The (reported) imminent arrivals of Brazilian pair Oscar and Hulk further underlines the European Champions’ desire to invest heavily in youth and this tactic coupled with the selling of Didier Drogba and Saloman Kalou will certainly make Chelsea a more fluid attacking threat for 2012-13. The prospect of a front-six including Lampard, Hazard, Mata, Torres, Hulk and Marin should make for some compelling football but how best DiMatteo deploys his attacking unit and massages the egos of a dressing room prone to revolt will dictate Chelsea’s success (or lack of it) this season.

Verdict:
The arrival of 21-year old Belgian attacking midfielder Edin Hazard will quicken Chelsea’s counter-attacking ability and should provide plenty of ammunition for  Torres. On paper, Chelsea’s first team squad is every bit as potent as Manchester City’s and all signs point to the Londoners enjoying another profitable season. Defending their Champions League title may prove the deciding factor in losing out to City.

Predicted Finish:
2nd

Manchester City: It seems like only yesterday that Sergio Ageuro’s injury-time winner secured Manchester City’s first title since 1967 in the final match of the season. Since then it has been a relatively quiet pre-season for the newly crowned champions who are currently on tour in Austria preparing for the new campaign. An improved long-term contract for manager Roberto Mancini has ensured stability off the field and with no major injury concerns to date Man City look primed to retain the title they won in such dramatic fashion back in May.
The spine of the Man City team; Hart, Kompany, Toure plus Ageuro/Tevez/ Balotelli remains intact while the potential arrival of Robin van Persie  would bolster an already world-class forward line.
City’s failure to emerge from a difficult Champions League opening phase group will see a determined effort to reach the latter stages of Europe’s premier football competition in 2013.

Verdict:
A settled squad, a manager signed up for the next five years and an ability to attract the top talent from around the world ensures Manchester City will begin as favourites to lift a second consecutive Premier League title. How best Mancini manages to rotate his first team squad with additional European games on top of an already demanding domestic schedule will dictate City’s chances of success. Right now, they remain the team to beat.

Predicted Finish: 1st


Follow Ger on Twitter: @germccarthy74

Source: http://feeds.examiner.ie/~r/iesportsblog/~3/sDpw3PsHmVM/post.aspx

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